Characterizing the diurnal patterns of errors in the prediction of evapotranspiration by several land-surface models : an NACP analysis

Land-surface models use different formulations of stomatal conductance and plant hydraulics, and it is unclear which type of model best matches the observed surface-atmosphere water flux. We use the North American Carbon Program data set of latent heat flux (LE) measurements from 25 sites and predictions from 9 models to evaluate models' ability to resolve subdaily dynamics of transpiration. Despite overall good forecast at the seasonal scale, the models have difficulty resolving the dynamics of intradaily hysteresis. The majority of models tend to underestimate LE in the prenoon hours and overestimate in the evening. We hypothesize that this is a result of unresolved afternoon stomatal closure due to hydrodynamic stresses. Although no model or stomata parameterization was consistently best or worst in terms of ability to predict LE, errors in model-simulated LE were consistently largest and most variable when soil moisture was moderate and vapor pressure deficit was moderate to limiting. Nearly all models demonstrate a tendency to underestimate the degree of maximum hysteresis which, across all sites studied, is most pronounced during moisture-limited conditions. These diurnal error patterns are consistent with models' diminished ability to accurately simulate the natural hysteresis of transpiration. We propose that the lack of representation of plant hydrodynamics is, in part, responsible for these error patterns

Screen-detected colorectal cancers are associated with an improved outcome compared with stage-matched interval cancers

Background: Colorectal cancers (CRCs) detected through the NHS Bowel Cancer Screening Programme (BCSP) have been shown to have a more favourable outcome compared to non-screen-detected cancers. The aim was to identify whether this was solely due to the earlier stage shift of these cancers, or whether other factors were involved. Methods: A combination of a regional CRC registry (Northern Colorectal Cancer Audit Group) and the BCSP database were used to identify screen-detected and interval cancers (diagnosed after a negative faecal occult blood test, before the next screening round), diagnosed between April 2007 and March 2010, within the North East of England. For each Dukes' stage, patient demographics, tumour characteristics, and survival rates were compared between these two groups. Results: Overall, 322 screen-detected cancers were compared against 192 interval cancers. Screen-detected Dukes' C and D CRCs had a superior survival rate compared with interval cancers (P=0.014 and P=0.04, respectively). Cox proportional hazards regression showed that Dukes' stage, tumour location, and diagnostic group (HR 0.45, 95% CI 0.29-0.69, P<0.001 for screen-detected CRCs) were all found to have a significant impact on the survival of patients. Conclusions: The improved survival of screen-detected over interval cancers for stages C and D suggest that there may be a biological difference in the cancers in each group. Although lead-time bias may have a role, this may be related to a tumour's propensity to bleed and therefore may reflect detection through current screening tests

What eddy-covariance measurements tell us about prior land flux errors in CO2-flux inversion schemes

0.2 after 200 km). Separating out the plant functional types did not increase the spatial correlations, except for the deciduous broad-leaved forests. Using the statistics of the flux measurements as a proxy for the statistics of the prior flux errors was shown not to be a viable approach. A statistical model allowed us to upscale the site-level flux error statistics to the coarser spatial and temporal resolutions used in regional or global models. This approach allowed us to quantify how aggregation reduces error variances, while increasing correlations. As an example, for a typical inversion of grid point (300 km × 300 km) monthly fluxes, we found that the prior flux error follows an approximate e-folding correlation length of 500 km only, with correlations from one month to the next as large as 0.6

Development of a psychological intervention for fatigue after stroke

Post-stroke fatigue (PSF) is common and distressing, but there is insufficient evidence to recommend any effective treatment for it. Psychological interventions are effective in treating fatigue in other conditions. This paper describes the development and evaluation of the feasibility of a psychological intervention for PSF.Based on psychological correlates of PSF and evidence-based psychological interventions for fatigue in other medical conditions, we developed a manualised psychological intervention for PSF, with input from stroke clinicians, psychological therapists, and stroke survivors. The intervention was delivered by a clinical psychologist to 12 participants with PSF to test its acceptability and feasibility. According to the feedback from participants and therapists, the intervention was refined for future use.The intervention consisted of six individual, face-to-face treatment sessions, and one follow-up, telephone-delivered booster session. It included psycho-education and discussion of strategies to promote physical and social activities and to challenge unhelpful thoughts. Four participants dropped out and the remaining eight participants completed the intervention. These eight participants also completed all assessments and feedback and reported fatigue levels as lower at the end of the study than at the baseline. All participants reported favourable opinions on the intervention and suggested that the last two treatment sessions be combined and the booster session be delivered in person as opposed to telephone.This psychological intervention was acceptable to stroke patients and was feasible in the local health service. These findings suggest that a randomised controlled trial to test efficacy is warranted

Land use regression modeling of intra-urban residential variability in multiple traffic-related air pollutants

Background: There is a growing body of literature linking GIS-based measures of traffic density to asthma and other respiratory outcomes. However, no consensus exists on which traffic indicators best capture variability in different pollutants or within different settings. As part of a study on childhood asthma etiology, we examined variability in outdoor concentrations of multiple traffic-related air pollutants within urban communities, using a range of GIS-based predictors and land use regression techniques. Methods: We measured fine particulate matter (PM2.5), nitrogen dioxide (NO2), and elemental carbon (EC) outside 44 homes representing a range of traffic densities and neighborhoods across Boston, Massachusetts and nearby communities. Multiple three to four-day average samples were collected at each home during winters and summers from 2003 to 2005. Traffic indicators were derived using Massachusetts Highway Department data and direct traffic counts. Multivariate regression analyses were performed separately for each pollutant, using traffic indicators, land use, meteorology, site characteristics, and central site concentrations. Results: PM2.5 was strongly associated with the central site monitor (R2 = 0.68). Additional variability was explained by total roadway length within 100 m of the home, smoking or grilling near the monitor, and block-group population density (R2 = 0.76). EC showed greater spatial variability, especially during winter months, and was predicted by roadway length within 200 m of the home. The influence of traffic was greater under low wind speed conditions, and concentrations were lower during summer (R2 = 0.52). NO2 showed significant spatial variability, predicted by population density and roadway length within 50 m of the home, modified by site characteristics (obstruction), and with higher concentrations during summer (R2 = 0.56). Conclusion: Each pollutant examined displayed somewhat different spatial patterns within urban neighborhoods, and were differently related to local traffic and meteorology. Our results indicate a need for multi-pollutant exposure modeling to disentangle causal agents in epidemiological studies, and further investigation of site-specific and meteorological modification of the traffic-concentration relationship in urban neighborhoods

A brief early intervention for adolescent depression that targets emotional mental images and memories: protocol for a feasibility randomised controlled trial (IMAGINE trial)

This is the final version of the article. Available from BioMed Central via the DOI in this record.Background: Adolescent depression is common and impairing. There is an urgent need to develop early interventions to prevent depression becoming entrenched. However, current psychological interventions are difficult to access and show limited evidence of effectiveness. Schools offer a promising setting to enhance access to interventions, including reducing common barriers such as time away from education. Distressing negative mental images and a deficit in positive future images, alongside overgeneral autobiographical memories, have been implicated in depression across the lifespan, and interventions targeting them in adults have shown promise. Here, we combine techniques targeting these cognitive processes into a novel, brief psychological intervention for adolescent depression. This feasibility randomised controlled trial will test the feasibility and acceptability of delivering this imagery-based cognitive behavioural intervention in schools. Methods/design: Fifty-six adolescents (aged 16-18) with high symptoms of depression will be recruited from schools. Participants will be randomly allocated to the imagery-based cognitive behavioural intervention (ICBI) or the control intervention, non-directive supportive therapy (NDST). Data on feasibility and acceptability will be recorded throughout, including data on recruitment, retention and adherence rates as well as adverse events. In addition, symptom assessment will take place pre-intervention, post-intervention and at 3-month follow-up. Primarily, the trial aims to establish whether it is feasible and acceptable to carry out this project in a school setting. Secondary objectives include collecting data on clinical measures, including depression and anxiety, and measures of the mechanisms proposed to be targeted by the intervention. The acceptability of using technology in assessment and treatment will also be evaluated. Discussion: Feasibility, acceptability and symptom data for this brief intervention will inform whether an efficacy randomised controlled trial is warranted and aid planning of this trial. If this intervention is shown in a subsequent definitive trial to be safe, clinically effective and cost-effective, it has potential to be rolled out as an intervention and so would significantly extend the range of therapies available for adolescent depression. This psychological intervention draws on cognitive mechanism research suggesting a powerful relationship between emotion and memory and uses imagery as a cognitive target in an attempt to improve interventions for adolescent depression. Trial registration: ISRCTN85369879.This study represents independent research from a Clinical Doctoral Research Fellowship (Dr Victoria Pile, ICA-CDRF-2015-01-007) supported by the National Institute for Health Research and Health Education England

Evaluation of cadmium, lead, nickel and zinc status in biological samples of smokers and nonsmokers hypertensive patients

The objective of this study was to evaluate the association between trace and toxic elements zinc (Zn), cadmium (Cd), nickel (Ni) and lead (Pb) in biological samples (scalp hair, blood and urine) of smoker and nonsmoker hypertensive patients (n=457), residents of Hyderabad, Pakistan. For the purpose of comparison, the biological samples of age-matched healthy controls were selected as referents. The concentrations of trace and toxic elements were measured by atomic absorption spectrophotometer prior to microwave-assisted acid digestion. The validity and accuracy of the methodology were checked using certified reference materials and by the conventional wet acid digestion method on the same certified reference materials and real samples. The recovery of all the studied elements was found to be in the range of 97.8–99.3% in certified reference materials. The results of this study showed that the mean values of Cd, Ni and Pb were significantly higher in scalp hair, blood and urine samples of both smoker and nonsmoker patients than in referents (P<0.001), whereas the concentration of Zn was lower in the scalp hair and blood, but higher in the urine samples of hypertensive patients. The deficiency of Zn and the high exposure of toxic metals as a result of tobacco smoking may be synergistic with risk factors associated with hypertension